Ray Dalio
Economic Cycles: Dalio emphasizes the long-term debt cycle, noting that economies move through predictable phases of borrowing, spending, and deleveraging.
Big Debt Crises: He identifies how excessive debt leads to financial crises and how policy responses (like money printing) affect recovery and inequality.
Changing World Order: Dalio's recent work discusses the rise and fall of empires, showing how internal conflict, external war, and debt cycles contribute to the decline of great powers.
Principles: He’s also known for his systematized decision-making using radical transparency and truth in leadership and management.
William Strauss & Neil Howe
The Fourth Turning: Strauss and Howe created the theory of generational cycles (or saecula), arguing that American history moves in 80–100 year cycles, divided into four turnings:
1. High (post-crisis rebuilding)
2. Awakening (spiritual rebellion)
3. Unraveling (institutional decay)
4. Crisis (Fourth Turning) – a period of upheaval, often leading to a re-founding of society.
Generational Archetypes: They categorize generations into four repeating types (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist), each shaped by and shaping the turning they grow up in.
Current Era: They argue that we’re in the Fourth Turning now (began around 2008), suggesting a major crisis is culminating by the early 2030s, potentially reshaping institutions and society dramatically.