Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Fiscal Metrics Outlook (2023-2025)

Fiscal Deficit (% GDP)
  • 2023: 5.0%
  • 2024: 4.1% (↓ from 2023, below 4.3% target)
  • 2025 (Projected): 3.8% → Improving toward 3% by 2028

Debt Position

(a) Absolute Debt:
  • 2022: RM1.399T (78.1% of GDP)
  • 2024: RM1.2T
  • 2025: RM1.5T (record high)
(b) Debt-to-GDP Ratio:
  • 2023: 64.3%
  • 2024: 64.6%
  • 2025: 64.2% (projected) → Stagnant

Revenue & Expenditure

(a) Tax Revenue (% GDP):
  • 2023: ~12.0%
  • 2024: 12.5%
  • 2025: 12.4% →Below 15% threshold
(b) Petroleum Revenue (% GDP):
  • 2025: 1.0% (↓33% from 2023)
(c) Rigid Expenditure Share:
  • 2022: 40%
  • 2024: 48% → Crowding out investments

Social & Development

(a) STR/SARA Allocation:
  • 2024: RM10+B
  • 2025: RM13B (↑30% YoY)
(b) Development Expenditure (% GDP):
  • 2024: 4.4%
  • 2025: 4.1% →2-year decline

Critical Trends

(a) Positive:
  • Net borrowings ↓ to RM76.8B (2024 vs. RM92.6B 2023)
(b) Risks:
  • Development spending ↓ to 4.1% of GDP
  • Petroleum revenue ↓ 33% since 2023

Key Takeaway

Structural weaknesses persist:
  • Tax revenue critically low
  • Rigid costs crowd out growth investments
  • Absolute debt at record high
  • →Requires GST/wealth taxes + subsidy restructuring

Practical Impact:

Every 10% SST on "non-essentials" (e.g., glassware, chocolates) and 8% tax on commercial leases directly funds initiatives like:
  • Sumbangan MADANI cash aid (RM2.5b budget)
  • Public transport subsidies (RM1.8b)
  • Rural healthcare expansion


(16/6/2025)