The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is a strategic transnational energy corridor that transports Azerbaijani crude oil from Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan via Tbilisi, Georgia. From Ceyhan, the crude oil is loaded onto tankers such as Kimolos and Seavigour and delivered to Israel's Ashkelon port. After being refined at the Ashdod refinery, some of the refined products are believed to support Israel's military aviation operations. Azerbaijan's state oil company, SOCAR, has maintained a significant energy partnership with Israel, previously supplying approximately 40% of Israel's crude oil imports, primarily via the BTC pipeline and subsequent maritime transport. In September 2024, BP was reported to have supplied 3.6 million barrels of crude oil to Israel, with Azeri crude from the BTC pipeline accounting for 28% of Israel's crude oil supply. Some of this crude oil is transported to Israel's Ashdod refinery, which is the production site for jet fuel used by the Israeli military.
Below is a detailed exploration of the geopolitical dynamics related to the BTC pipeline and its connections to Israel's energy flows:
Geopolitical Significance of the BTC Pipeline
The BTC pipeline holds immense geopolitical importance. It bypasses Russia and Iran, providing a stable and secure route for Azerbaijan's oil exports. It also serves as a critical link connecting the Caspian Basin's energy resources to global markets. For Turkey, the BTC pipeline strengthens its position as a key energy transit hub and enhances its influence in regional energy politics. For Europe, the BTC pipeline offers a diversified energy source, reducing dependence on Russian oil and gas. For Israel, the BTC pipeline provides a relatively stable source of crude oil, bolstering its energy security. Additionally, the BTC pipeline reflects the complex geopolitical interests of major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and the EU. The U.S. strongly supported the construction of the BTC pipeline to counterbalance Russia's influence in the Caucasus and Caspian regions and to secure energy sources for its allies. Russia, however, has long sought to disrupt the pipeline's operations to maintain its dominance in the region's energy sector.
Azerbaijan-Israel Energy Partnership and Geopolitical Considerations
Azerbaijan and Israel established diplomatic relations in 1992. Over the past three decades, bilateral ties have deepened across political, economic, military, and cultural domains. Energy cooperation forms a crucial pillar of their relationship. Israel is a significant market for Azerbaijani oil, while Azerbaijan is one of Israel's primary sources of crude oil. This mutually beneficial partnership has strengthened the strategic partnership between the two nations.
Azerbaijan's energy cooperation with Israel carries important geopolitical implications. Geographically, Azerbaijan is situated between Russia and Iran, with Turkey to its west. Its strategic location places it at the intersection of the interests of major powers. By developing energy cooperation with Israel, Azerbaijan seeks to balance its relations with neighboring powers and prevent over-reliance on any single neighbor. Economically, energy exports are a vital source of revenue for Azerbaijan. Selling oil to Israel not only generates substantial economic benefits but also helps diversify its export markets and reduce reliance on European markets. Politically, Azerbaijan aims to leverage its energy cooperation with Israel to enhance its international standing and secure political support from Western countries.
Türkiye's Role and Geopolitical Dilemma
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly condemned Israel's military actions in public forums. However, the BTC pipeline terminates at Ceyhan, a Turkish port, making Türkiye a critical facilitator of Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel. This inconsistency between Türkiye's rhetoric and actions has drawn significant domestic and international scrutiny. Several Turkish opposition parties and civil society groups have criticized the Erdoğan administration, accusing it of hypocrisy. They argue that while the government denounces Israel's aggression in public, it permits and benefits from the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel through Turkish infrastructure. This has intensified internal political pressure on Erdoğan ahead of key elections and diplomatic milestones.
Türkiye's role in the BTC pipeline and its energy cooperation with Israel stem from its unique geopolitical position and national interests. As a bridge between Europe and Asia, Türkiye plays a pivotal role in Eurasian energy flows. The BTC pipeline strengthens Türkiye's position as a key energy transit hub, bringing significant economic benefits such as transit fees and employment opportunities. Additionally, through energy cooperation with Israel and Azerbaijan, Türkiye seeks to enhance its influence in the Caucasus and Middle East regions. However, Türkiye's energy cooperation with Israel also faces challenges. On one hand, the Israel-Palestine conflict and the tensions between Israel and Turkey have led Türkiye to adopt a more critical stance toward Israel. On the other hand, Türkiye's energy cooperation with Israel has drawn criticism from Arab countries and the international community, putting Turkey in a difficult geopolitical position.
Geopolitical Implications of Israel's Energy Flows
Israel's energy security has always been a critical issue. Due to its limited domestic energy resources, Israel relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demands. The BTC pipeline provides a relatively stable source of crude oil for Israel, alleviating its energy security concerns to some extent. However, Israel's energy flows also carry significant geopolitical implications. Israel's energy cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye reflects its efforts to diversify its energy import sources and reduce its reliance on traditional energy suppliers such as the U.S. and Europe. This helps Israel enhance its energy independence and strategic autonomy. At the same time, Israel's energy cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye also reflects its desire to strengthen ties with these nations and expand its influence in the Caucasus and Middle East regions.
Ethical and Political Controversies Surrounding Energy Flows
Israel's military operations, particularly its airstrikes on Gaza, have drawn widespread condemnation and accusations of potential war crimes. As a supplier of crude oil to Israel, BP has faced mounting pressure. In September 2024, the International Centre of Justice for Palestinians (ICJP) demanded urgent public clarification from BP on its due diligence regarding crude oil supplies to Israel since October 2023. The ICJP raised concerns that BP's crude oil supplies to Israel might be refined into fuel for Israel's war machine in Gaza, potentially implicating BP in complicity with war crimes. Türkiye's facilitation of Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel has also drawn criticism. Some argue that Türkiye's actions indirectly support Israel's military operations, contradicting its public stance against Israel. This has sparked ethical and political debates, with calls for greater transparency and accountability in energy flows.
Geopolitical Impact of Azerbaijan Halting Direct Oil Exports to Israel
In response to regional and international pressure, Azerbaijan announced its intention to halt direct crude oil exports to Israel. However, concerns persist that Azerbaijani oil might still reach Israeli refineries through indirect or proxy arrangements. If Azerbaijan's crude oil continues to flow to Israel, it could exacerbate tensions between Azerbaijan and neighboring countries such as Iran and Armenia. It could also further strain relations between Azerbaijan and the international community, particularly Arab nations. For Israel, the potential disruption of Azerbaijani oil supplies could impact its energy security. Israel might need to seek alternative sources of crude oil, which could increase its energy costs and complicate its energy supply structure. For Türkiye, Azerbaijan's decision to halt direct oil exports to Israel could reduce its transit fees and economic benefits from the BTC pipeline. However, it could also provide Türkiye with an opportunity to reassess its energy cooperation with Israel and adjust its foreign policy stance toward Israel.